ISSUE 1

Commonwealth Year 2000 Preparedness Initiative

The Year 2000 (Y2K) Problem or the Millennium Bug, is a technical problem which is envisaged to have devastating effects on society's functioning unless measures for mitigation, prevention, remediation and contingency planning are put in place as essential components of preparedness for beating the bug. Although the Y2K issue is fundamentally a technical problem, the choice of how to address the issue is, however, a government, a business and a regulatory problem.

There is evidence that concerns by governments, public administrations, public sector institutions and others on the subject of the Year 2000 Problem have been inadequate. The extent of the repercussions of the problem will include almost any area that uses the microchip which deploys a date to compute, initiate, action, index, report, facilitate, schedule or record. The Millennium bug will affect computers, computer-based systems, microprocessor-embedded systems and much software.

The impact of Y2K compliance failures will affect governments, the public sector and businesses at three distinct levels, namely, at the operational level, in terms of data and information loss, the tactical level, in terms of financial costs and at the strategic level in terms of ecomomic costs.

Priority areas for action among developing countries, will vary from government to government. The Government sector, easily the largest public sector "enterprise" in any country, is likely to be most affected. To this end, governments have the responsibility for ensuring Y2K compliance for government sectors as well as ensuring that the private sector is fully engaged as, to date, governments are striving not only to establish strategic alliances and partnerships between government and the private sector but are also exploring modes of partnering as mutual stakeholders in projects, programmes and enterprises for benefit to countries.

Recent information collected by the Commonwealth Secretariat on Y2K Preparedness shows that in the main, Commonwealth developing countries have not put in place explicit strategies for Y2K preparedness. For a few, implicit strategies manifest in occasional articles in popular magazines and weekly newspapers. A handful, however, have formulated explicit strategies and/or put in place organisational arrangements for implementation of the Y2K programme. South Africa, for example, has put in place a National Decision Support Centre, with strategies for effecting national awareness campaign, dissemination of information amongst stakeholders, establishing a central Y2K knowledge repository and utilisation of experts to quantify the scope of the Y2K problem. Singapore has placed the year 2000 issue a top priority for the government. A survey conducted by the National Computer Board to gauge the impact of Year 2000 challenge on government's existing computer systems has revealed that the Year 2000 will affect the Unique Identification Number and Foreign Identification Number on all computer systems in public and private sector. Furthermore, the survey revealed that computer systems within government Ministries which have a 6-digit date will have to be modified to an 8-digit date (YYYYMMDD). Malta has an explicit strategy on Y2K and is reported to have developed a toolkit for testing computer systems for Y2K compliance. Fiji has accorded Y2K Problem a Cabinet-level significance. Kenya has accorded the Y2K issue a ministerial-level importance, with organisational arrangements for implementation of a national programme yet to be formulated.

To counter the possibility that critical systems may not operate effectively and the probable failure of less critical systems for which no time is left, all organisations need to create contingency plans. Governments need to ensure that a nationally co-ordinated plan is drawn up to counter potential failures in infrastructure elements. It is a platitude to state that for most countries and organisations, work on clearing up non-critical but possibly highly important systems will extend well into 2000 and beyond. Contingency planning becomes a crucial issue that needs to be addressed. Probable failure scenarios for Year 2000 are different in type rather than degree The problem with the millennium bug is that possibilities exist for concurrent or multiple coincident failures in similar systems.

The Year 2000 Problem is a global issue. As such, it warrants joint and coherent public and private sector partnerships and alliances. Such partnering initiatives may be aimed to facilitate dialogue between business partners on progress in millennium preparedness. Under the auspices of such partnerships litigation may be minimised and environments may be created which will minimise the creation of legal obligations.

Commonwealth Initiative on Y2K preparedness started early this year when the Commonwealth Telecommunications Organisation (CTO) and COMNET-IT Foundation met with the Commonwealth Secretariat to find a niche for co-operation on the millennium bug. The result was the organisation of a workshop in Malta on Containing the Millennium Bug:A Commonwealth Initiative which .took place during 15-17 September 1998.Aimed, among others, at promoting a better understanding of the millennium bug, sensitising Finance agencies in Government as well as Information Technology policy makers to the need for the millennium bug preparedness and providing guidelines on high-level planning requirements for beating the bug, the Workshop brought together a total of 30 delegates and resource persons from 16 countries of the Commonwealth and 4 international organisations world-wide..The workshop resulted in a set of recommendations, which were aimed at drawing the attention of national Governments, particularly through Senior Officials Forum of the Commonwealth Finance Ministers (CFMM) Meeting which took place during 29-31 September 1998 in Ottawa Canada. The recommendations called for the need for action with expediency, the need for funding allocation and sourcing, the need to establish a National Task Force on Y2K, the need to create public awareness, public/private sector alliances and partnerships and government/government co-operation.

In Ottawa, Senior Officials and Ministers were presented as an initiative within which member countries could co-operate in terms of learning experiences, best practices and information sharing; UK Government's Year 2000 initiative was presented as a case example of a working model on Y2K preparedness; and Canada's initiative on Contingency Planning provided a unique and rich setting on Y2K risk management. A significant result of the CFMM was the establishment by the Finance Ministers of a Commonwealth Y2K Preparedness Facility in recognition of the importance of early action to deal with the Millennium bug. The Finance Ministers urged interested member countries to contribute to the Facility and welcomed Britain's offer of £250,000 as first contributor to the Facility.

Commonwealth Y2K Preparedness Initiative, following the CFMM, is focusing on limited technical assistance to provide expert consultancy (local or external) to deliver a Comprehensive Y2K Strategy for Action by member countries. This will comprise Y2K problem scoping and identification of mitigation and remediation options. Preparations are underway for inviting applications from member governments for limited grants for assistance with the Year 2000 Problem. The grants will be drawn from the Commonwealth Y2K Preparedness Facility. It is anticipated that this would be followed by Testing and Implementation of Mitigation and Remediation Strategies for Y2K Compliance.

To provide practical guidance to governments and businesses, Commonwealth Secretariat is preparing a Millennium Bug Preparedness Guide comprising simple easy-to-read 'best practice' templates on Y2K preparedness.at the strategic and operational levels, respectively.

"CONTAINING THE MILLENNIUM BUG" REVIEW

Information presented at the Workshop came from experienced practioners. These included technical experts from Malta IT and Training Services Ltd, a resource centre for COMNET-IT which is actively engaged in providing expertise for both public sector and private sector agencies. The following Year 2000 "home truths" were highlighted.

Perception of Year 2000 Problem

Many senior policy makers are still inclined to dismiss the Year 2000 threat as overstated. What is a fact is that major corporates and many nations have budgeted significant funds to address the "Millenium Bug" - not because they wish to, but because they feel they have to in order to remain solvent beyond the Year 2000! Denial of the problem delays remedial action. Systems/hardware audit and contingency plan are always required.

Linkage of Utilities

Water, power and telecommunications services are often mutually dependent. If one of these utilities fails because of a Year 2000 bug it may bring down the others also. Failure of utilities can impact evetyone and all business.

Its Too Late Already!

Traditional Year 2000 compliance projects followed a recipe of - systems audit; impact analysis; estimate costs; agree strategy; prioritise; remedial action (fix or replace dubious systems); testing. There is no longer time to await audit results before beginning remedial action. Very soon, it will be too late to fix or replace any computer systems/hardware due to the lead time needed for procurement, commissioning and testing. Better then to think "contigency".

Need to think "Contingency"

Effort is well spent in considering what can be done manually or by workaround means if a key computer system or set of hardware fails due to the Year 2000 date change. Identifying appropriate human resources and ensuring their availability is a priority.

Don't forget "embedded systems"

The use of chip controllers in sophiscated equipment has led to concern as to the reliability of such hardware after the Year 2000. Some chips may misintepret dates beyond 1/1/2000 and cause the hardware to turn off - potentially disabling security systems, lifts, production lines, medical equipment.

A piece of hardware which contains an embedded chip with a date function is usually characterised by : flashing lights on the equipment facia; a date display; buttons to set the date; a backup battery; links to other control equipment via communication cables.

Checking suspect hardware for Year 2000 compliance usually requires recourse to the equipment manufacturer.

Interdependence of businesses with their suppliers and their customers

Representatives from the commercial sector volunteered their "best practice" advice - it is not enough to ensure that all inhouse systems and hardware are Year 2000 compliant if your trading partners or your utility providers let you down. The solution to these uncertainities is to make enquiries of significant partners as to their Year 2000 preparations; if the replies give cause for concern, move to contigency or seek other relationships before the end of this century!

Banking dilemma

A Maltese banker spoke eloquently on the difficulties faced by banks everywhere. Banks must caution their business customers over the Year 2000 problem so as to ensure corrective action by their major borrowers. On the other hand, it is not in the banks interest to cause panic amongst their depositors as a run of cash withdrawals at the end of 1999 could threaten the bank's own liquidity!

Most Central Banks plan to print and circulate extra currency in late 1999 to allow for greater ATM cash withdrawals during the end of century closedown.

Legal aspects and redress

Several speakers at the workshop outlined their experience of how to deal with software and hardware suppliers when seeking Year 2000 information. In summary, it is wise to avoid aggression in these dealings as legal redress is at best slow and at worst fruitless.

Fear of dumping non-compliant products in Developing Countries was voiced and caution advised when dealing with local agents who may lack full knowledge of their import's Year 2000 compliance status.

Scale of Problem

The international bank clearing system affectionately known as SWIFT handles approximately 4,000,000 transactions per day worth $13 trillion! The are many other sizeable systems constantly handling financial deals around the world. If any of these were to halt, even for a few days, the impact on the world economy could be serious and far reaching.

Need to have a National Co-ordinating Body

All countries will improve their Year 2000 resiliance if they co-ordinate efforts internally and offer a single point of contact for external enquiries on this issue. It will become increasingly important to provide timely information to foreign organisations (particularly telecommunications, banking and travel operators) who may otherwise "blacklist" the target nation in respect of business beyond the Year 2000.

A National Year 2000 Taskforce requires adequate budget (to be re-deployed if not spent), highest level representation in Government (Cabinet or Prime Ministerial direction) and should be charged with ensuring the maintenance of Public Safety and Revenue!

Text on the Year 2000 Preparedness Initiative was provided by Mr Rogers W'O Okot Uma of the Commonwealth Secreteriat.

Review for "Containing the Millennium Bug" text provided by Mrs Melody Morgan-Busher..

URLs relevant to Year 2000 issue :

www.open.gov.uk/bug2000.htm

http://www.ogc.gov.uk/index.asp?id=1878

www.eds.com

www.iee.org/2000risk

www.bba.org.uk

www.igd.org.uk

www.bis.org

www.weblaw.co.uk

www.abi.org.uk

www.itaa.org

www.mitts.gov.mt